Ukrainian forces seem to be on the verge of a strategic turning point as they challenge the Russian defensive stronghold in Robotyne, posits ISW. Since September 4, sustained offensive maneuvers have apparently eroded the Russian defense lines. However, the conspicuous absence of heavy Ukrainian equipment suggests that their momentum hasn’t fully peaked.
Anticipating Diminished Russian Resistance
Ukrainian military sources suggest that upcoming Russian defenses might prove less formidable than the northern barricades previously surmounted by the Ukrainians. The ISW notes the possibility of Russian troops having massed their primary combat units in frontline defenses to ward off Ukrainian counterstrikes. Such frontline units may have incurred substantial casualties and subsequently receded to rearward positions.
Further analysis by the ISW indicates that Russian forces could be stretched thin across the extensive defense network in southern Ukraine. The current frontline might be manned by forces that have either remained unchanged since the onset of the counteroffensive or by detachments reassigned from other front sectors.
Image: Mil.gov.ua, UA anti-air battalion of 30th bgd 04, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, (no changes made)