ATACMS Shifts the Balance: Russia’s War Win Now Unlikely

Russia’s Push Stalls; Ukraine Unleashes ATACMS. ETH Zurich’s Marcus Keupp Foresees Russia’s Defeat.

As Russia’s significant thrust on the Eastern Front wanes, military analyst Marcus Keupp from ETH Zurich contends Russia is on a losing trajectory. Following this, Ukraine unleashed its ATACMS missiles, marking their debut in the conflict, reports Swiss news outlet “Watson“.

Over the past ten days, Russia has grappled with a concerning depletion rate of its military equipment, shared Keupp with Watson. He highlighted the lack of progress in Russia’s incursions across the eastern front. The depletion has forced Russia to move its artillery closer to the frontline, exposing them to greater threats from Ukrainian units.

ATACMS: A Game Changer Against Russian Choppers?

Watson elaborates on the potential game-changing capabilities of Ukraine’s ATACMS missiles. With an extended range, these missiles can target Russia’s attack helicopters, which previously dominated Ukrainian tanks with little resistance.

US Pledges Long-term ATACMS Support for Ukraine

While it remains uncertain when Ukraine might acquire more ATACMS, Watson points out that the U.S. has assured long-term delivery of these missiles to Ukraine. In terms of global stock, Keupp indicated no scarcity, noting the U.S. alone possesses over 700 units. However, deliveries had been postponed, primarily due to concerns about Russian propaganda and threats, with Watson highlighting Russia’s nuclear warnings causing Western hesitancy.

Russian Air Might Concentrated in Crimea

Underscoring Crimea’s pivotal role for Russia, Keupp emphasized that a significant portion of Russia’s air capabilities resides there. With the reach of ATACMS, Ukraine now poses a threat to the entire Crimea region, potentially pushing Russia to retreat or face the destruction of its assets.

Drawing a conclusion, Keupp reaffirmed his projection to Watson: while battles might persist, Russia has strategically already lost this conflict.

Image: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Peredova on the outskirts of Avdiivka (27449297261), CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (no changes made).

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